It’s clear that the signs were there for all to see if a recent article from px Group is to be believed.
They should know as they operate a number of assets that feed in to the National Grid and claim that there were no fewer than 6 margin calls from National Grid – times when forecasted half hourly supply will not meet forecasted demand – in the winter of 20/21 vs 2 total in the whole period from 2011-2019!
Sure, we’ve been caught in a perfect storm now as i) the weather has meant a lack of wind supply at the same time as ii) Asia has increased it’s requirement for gas while emerging from the pandemic and iii) UK gas storage is at an all time low.
That said these issues haven’t suddenly occurred. They’ve been creeping us on for months if not years so were the warning signs there and was it possible for producers & providers to have taken action sooner?