Wholesale gas and electricity prices rose sharply through the period from Winter 26 to Q1 2027 on Tuesday. Further out, prices rose for Winter 27 and, to a lesser extent, Winter 28.
At present, it looks like the Iranians are in for the long haul with this war – don’t forget that Iran previously fought an eight-year war against Iraq and was involved for more than a decade in the Syrian civil war – and, when combined with the US midterm elections, the pricing, while governed by the fact that Qatar cannot export gas, is actually being driven by a whole bunch of geopolitical events that have nothing to do with the market itself.
| Gas: Prompt and near curve contracts gained around 4% yesterday with low renewable output supporting near delivery contracts. Norwegian maintenance impacted the near curve. Gains further out on the curve were driven by geopolitics, as attacks by Houthi rebels on Saudi Arabian cities expanded the already escalating conflict in the Middle East. This morning, prices are higher than last night’s close. Power: Most power contracts gained in price, except the weekend ahead contract which shed value on strong wind forecasts. Curve prices also moved higher, driven by bullish NBP movements. Early market movement is up on last night’s settlement. Oil: Oil prices continued to gain yesterday, getting ever close to the important $100/bbl mark, driven by strong concerns over long term supply disruptions as the conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate. Carbon (EUAs): The ICE Dec-26 closed at €85.42/t last night. The contract opened this morning at €85.43/t. Carbon (UKAs): The ICE Dec-26 traded to £60.92/t yesterday, opening at £61.03/t this morning. |
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