On Thursday prices rose marginally across the board. We expect to see the downward trend created by good market conditions to continue next week.
In terms of retail we are seeing most price books below 25p on electricity and nudging 7.0p for gas. Gas retail prices dropped 10% in the past week. This trend will continue. While prices won’t return to pre Ukraine levels, especially on gas, electricity should get nearer to 20p and gas nearer to 5p next summer. For now our recommendation is to fix pricing through just one curve which will take you to 30/9/24.
When looking at pricing there is limited benefit in committing to part of a price curve unless you are buying Gwh per meter point. The winter curve runs to 31/3 and then the summer curve runs to 30/9.
In terms of generation, see the lower chart, renewables were still below 40% and therefore generation prices remained high.
|Gas: Gas prices rose yesterday as demand increased in the prompt due to the colder weather. Averaging 8% higher than seasonal norms.
Power: Power prices also rose yesterday following a revised decline in front curve Wind generation. Further out contracts tracked bullish momentum in Carbon and Coal markets.
Oil: Oil prices fell yesterday, following concerns around demand as Chinese imports showed their first annual decline since April.
Carbon (EU ETS): The ICE Dec-23 closed at €69.65/t yesterday. Opening at €70.17/t this morning, the contract is currently trading at €69.76/t
Carbon (UKAs): The ICE Dec-23 rose to £33.35/t during yesterday’s session. The contract is currently trading at £33.35/t