On Thursday, wholesale gas and electricity prices dropped, with significant increases further out. This has meant that during the past week, the curve for one-, two-, and three-year contracts has reduced significantly, with the difference now only around 5% between the two at a wholesale level. Electricity (one-year) is currently £78.25 per MWh, with gas at £0.85 per therm. At a retail level, we are still seeing contracts coming in with day rates below 20 pence per kWh, and, where applicable, night rates in the 16p to 17p range. For gas, we are seeing contracts at 4p to 4.5p per kWh. These are dependent on sector and credit.
On the generation side, the price last week was £50.17 per MWh, which is the lowest I’ve seen in many years. This was driven by fossil fuels making up just 16% of generation, with renewables at 53%. Nuclear and biomass made up a further 19.4%, meaning that renewables, nuclear, and biomass together accounted for over 70%. This is good news for the market.
| Gas: Gas prices fell yesterday. In the prompt, the grid was forecast to close long by 5.6mcm. Storage injection increased in the afternoon as shippers added excess supplies to the inventory. In the curve, injections into gas storage across the continent is removing risk out of curve contracts. Power: Power prices softened yesterday. In the prompt, a higher wind output of 6.4GWs/day and 3.1GWs/day over the weekend reduced prices. Curve prices continued to track the gas market and the increasing levels of gas storage across the UK and Europe. Oil: Oil prices continued to fall yesterday, leading to a weekly loss of 4%, the steepest weekly loss since June. US tariffs weighed on the global economic outlook, whilst upcoming US and Russia talks raised the probability of an ease in sanctions on Russia. Carbon (EU ETS): The ICE Dec-25 rose to €71.77/t yesterday. The contract has yet to trade at the time of writing. Carbon (UKAs): The ICE Dec-25 rose at £51.04/t yesterday. The contract opened at £51.05/t today and is currently trading at £51.25/t at the time of writing. |
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