On Tuesday electricity prices continued to drop but trader activity caused the gas market to remain static in the near term, while further out prices continued to drop.
There is a little volatility at the moment due to the usual seasonal factors of maintenance and weather.
Given the continuing strong market fundamentals we see no reason why wholesale gas and electricity prices won’t continue to drop during the next six months.
|Gas: Gas prices rose in the near curve yesterday following concerns around unplanned outages, the decline of Wind output and the potential cold weather forecasted to arrive next week, potentially draining the UK’s storage. Prices fell in the further out curve due to declining UK Carbon costs.
Power: Power prices fell yesterday following losses in the UK Carbon market. Day Ahead prices rose as Wind output has been revised downwards, to 9.7GWs/day this week. Unplanned outage of the Viking interconnector has been extended to the end of this week, further pressuring Day Ahead prices.
Oil: Oil prices rose yesterday as investors are still waiting to hear about any conflict resolution in the Middle East. A ceasefire would ease any supply disruption concerns, but some investors are still concerned the US will continue its campaign against the Houthi militants in Yemen, driving oil prices upwards.
Carbon (EU ETS): The ICE Dec-24 contract rose at €63.58/t yesterday. The contract is currently trading down at €63.10/t.
Carbon (UKAs): The ICE Dec-24 reversed previous gains and fell to £35.65/t during yesterday’s session. Opening lower today at £35.35/t, the contract is currently trading at £35.11/t.
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