Wholesale gas and electricity prices were broadly neutral on Tuesday. We expect to see very small gains in the near term, with reductions further out.
| Gas: Gas prices were mixed yesterday. Domestic demand is expected to rise to 160mcm by the weekend, despite wind generation being expected to generate 20% above average. In the curve, British storage settled at 31% fullness, up from last weeks 26%, however still much lower than year on year which increases risk for the winter period. Power: Power prices traded flatly yesterday. Despite a low wind output of 8.5GWs being expected today, this week is expected to average 11.5GWs/day before falling back to the norm of 6.6GWs/day next week. Temperatures are also expected to rise across the UK and Europe next week, leading to an increase in cooling demand. Oil: Oil prices fell yesterday due to rising OPEC+ supplies and concerns over a weaker global demand. Price declines were limited by President Trump’s threats to India for purchasing Russian oil. Carbon (EU ETS): The ICE Dec-25 rose to €71.59/t yesterday. Opening at €71.38/t this morning, the contract is currently trading similar at €71.22/t. Carbon (UKAs): The ICE Dec-25 closed at £51.05/t yesterday. The contract opened at £50.68/t today and continues to trade at this level at the time of writing. |
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