5th February 2024 Energy Price Alert – UK Gas & UK Electricity

On Friday, there were conflicting messages with low demand on one side and forecast lower temperatures in the second half of February on the other side.

Overall, wholesale gas and electricity prices remain stable.

Our view is that the upward pressure is being caused by Traders with cargoes that they need to offload at higher prices, than where the market currently sits. When this situation has occurred in the recent past, the Traders have not succeeded in forcing the market price back up by any noticeable number.

Gas: Gas market prices settled mixed across its contracts last Friday. Uncertainty surrounding LNG supplies and a decline in forecasted temperatures for the latter half of February provided bullish support. 
Power: Power prices tracked the underlying Gas market at the conclusion of last week. Wind production is forecast to above the norm this week, generating 14.9GWs/day, however it is expected to fall to 9.8GWs/day by next week. 
Oil: Oil prices fell last Friday as hopes of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas supported the losses. European inflation edged lower but the BoE and US interest rates were kept the same.
Carbon (EU ETS): The ICE Dec-24 contract rose to €63.4/t at the end of last week. Previous gains are being reversed, as the contract is currently trading down at €63.25/t. 
Carbon (UKAs): The ICE Dec-24 continued its recent bullish trend and climbed to £37.54/t last Friday. Opening higher today at £37.69/t, the contract is currently trading at £38.00/t. 

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The Procurement Group

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