Both gas and electricity prices rose on Tuesday as the short term supply issues increased on both commodities.
Further out, prices remained subdued with the key Winter ’24 gas price still below 90p/thm.
Our immediate and long term view remains positive that prices will continue to drop due to significant oversupply coming in to the market.
| Gas: Gas prices rose in the near curve yesterday following an undersupplied grid and a large withdrawal from storage. Further out contract costs increased as the market weighted the impact of the US LNG outage and ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Power: Power prices continued to mainly track the underlying gas contracts with additional support from rising Carbon markets. The UK’s nuclear reactors have averaged 3.3GWs/day, 2.6GWs/day below the 2019-2023 average. Oil: Oil price closed upwards yesterday as the $USD fell due to the anticipation of hearing the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates. The conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to provide plenty of bullish support for prices, with limitations coming from the possibility of the US lifting sanctions on Venezuela. Carbon (EU ETS): The ICE Dec-24 contract rose to €63.51/t yesterday. This morning the contract has continued its recent bullish run and is currently trading at €64.46/t. Carbon (UKAs): The ICE Dec-24 reversed its previous sessions losses and rose to £33.1/t yesterday. The contract has continued to gain momentum and is currently trading at £34.00/t. |
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