Wholesale gas and electricity prices were stable in the near term but saw good drops in the mid- and long-term contract areas on Friday. While this is good news, there were further geopolitical developments over the weekend, with the US announcing that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could be imminent, so we expect further volatility in the week ahead.
| Gas: Gas prices fell across the market last Friday. A forecasted decline in demand over this week saw prices soften in the prompt, whilst curve prices took influence from the prompt and a weaker wider energy complex. Power: Power prices tracked the weakened wider energy markets. Front prices fell on strong renewable forecasts and a decline in demand. Wind generation is expected to average 13.2GWs/day over week 23, 20% above norms. Oil: Oil prices continued to prove volatile at the conclusion of last week. Prices fell as fears arose that OPEC+ would increase their supplies to the market further. The current expectation is that OPEC+ would increase supplies by 400,000 barrels/day, but latest rumours expect 411,000 barrels/day, showing a more aggressive OPEC+. Carbon (EU ETS): The ICE Dec-25 continued its recent bearish run down to €70.41/t on Friday. The contract opened at €70.18/t this morning and is currently trading at €70.76/t. Carbon (UKAs): The ICE Dec-25 settled flat at £51.26/t last Friday. The contract has not yet started trading at the time of writing this morning. |
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