29th November 2023 Energy Price Alert – UK Gas & UK Electricity

Wholesale prices continued to drop on Tuesday as market fundamentals kicked in.

In addition to good stocks up to 10 x LNG cargoes are due to dock in the UK in December.

Gas:  NBP contracts continued to shed value yesterday. As demand started to rise, a well-supplied system backed by a release of gas storage helped keep prices bearish. 5 LNG cargo are expected to arrive in Britain before the 9th December, with a possibility of a further 5 if algorithmic data is correct.
Power: Power contracts tracked losses at the NBP hub yesterday. Wind generation has been revised upwards, however this is still 10-20% below seasonal norm, coupled with below seasonal temperatures, this is likely to cause an increase in gas for power demand.
Oil – Crude prices rallied yesterday on the back of renewed supply concerns. Daily supply from Kazakhstan has been cut by ~55% with no certainty as to when it will be back to full capacity. North Sea supply is also likely to be lower in the New Year due with a year-on-year reduction in cargo from Troll.

Carbon (EU ETS): The ICE Dec-23 traded down to €72.96 /t yesterday. The contract is currently €72.80/t at the time of writing. 
Carbon (UKAs): The ICE Dec-23 fell to £42.87/t during yesterday’s session. At time of writing the contract is yet to trade.
The Procurement Group

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