25th October 2023 Energy Price Alert – UK Gas & UK Electricity

Wholesale prices dropped back markedly on Tuesday on both gas and electricity

You will note an additional table at the bottom of the chart showing 1-4 year wholesale pricing which is very flat.  Our expectation is that as we get closer to the relevant periods prices will drop.

Gas: NBP contracts once again incurred losses throughout the curve as the risk premiums, applied due to Middle Eastern conflicts, started to drop.  Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal over the coming week, easing heating demand. Gas demand yesterday totalled 216mcm/day, 40mcm/day down on seasonal norm standard levels.

Power: Power prices continued their downwards descent yesterday, largely shadowing their NBP counterparts. The prompt was pressured by revised wind output signalling expected generation of 20% above seasonal average. Downwards movement in the Dec23 benchmark UKA carbon contract added further constraint on the curve.

Crude: Crude prices dropped back below $90/bbl yesterday with slowing demand weighing upon the commodity. A survey released showed an economic downturn throughout October in Europe, leading to a slowing of demand. The ECB is scheduled to meet in Athens on the 26th of October.

Carbon (EU ETS): The ICE Dec-23 closed at €80.58/t yesterday. This morning the contract opened at 80.62/t. 

Carbon (UKAs): The ICE Dec-23 fell to £40.57/t at last nights close. The contract is yet to trade this morning.

The Procurement Group

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