21st February 2025 Energy Price Alert – UK Gas & UK Electricity
Wholesale Gas and Electricity prices were broadly neutral on Thursday, consolidating the significant losses from earlier in the week.
Due to the recent increases generated Electricity was still over £100/MWh last week, with Gas accounting for 35.1% of the total generation. We expect to see the generated price dropping as Gas prices drop, and they are already down from the peak of £140/MWh on the 6th January.
TPG’s view remains that prices will soften during the Summer, and show savings versus contracts signed last year.
Gas: Gas prices were mixed yesterday. Prices weakened in the prompt due to strong renewals and higher temperatures leading to less demand for gas-fired generation. Gas curve was mixed as it rose to attract alternate supply sources instead of using stored supplies, which is currently at 22% fullness.
Power: Power prices fell yesterday. The prompt softened in line with higher temperatures and increasing wind generation for the remainder of week 8. Wind is expected to generate 12.9GWs/day throughout Week 9, 20% higher than average. The power curve continues to be dominated by movements in the wider energy mix, namely carbon and gas.
Oil: Oil prices rose yesterday due to increasing tensions between Ukrainian and US leaders, making traders nervous and the market uncertain. European supply disruption concerns linger after attacks on Russian infrastructure.
Carbon (EU ETS): The ICE Dec-25 softened further yesterday, settling at €72.67/t by the end of the day. The contract is trading lower at €73.39/t this morning.
Carbon (UKAs): The ICE Dec-25 continued to slide yesterday, down to £40.20/t. The contract is trading slightly higher this morning at £40.7/t.
