1st November 2023 Energy Price Alert – UK Gas & UK Electricity

Prices dropped markedly on Tuesday, particularly on gas.

12 month electric contracts starting April 24 dropped more than 5%, while 12 month gas starting April 24 dropped over 7%.

The drops were highest throughout the 2024 curves which supports our continued belief that either 12 month contracts or those to 30/9/24 are the most prudent approach right now.  That said the usual winter volatility is expected so we recommend locking in now for any contracts expiring before April 2024.

The long term market fundamentals continue to support lower prices, global conflicts and macro-economic events permitting.

Gas: Gas prices fell across the curve yesterday. Prompt prices fell as demand fell 56mcm below seasonal demand. The UK can expect to receive 9 LNG cargoes by the 9th of November, continuing the healthy supplies. 

Power:  Power prices fell throughout most of the curve yesterday. Declines in the Gas and Carbon markets were felt in the Power market. Strong Day ahead wind generation continues to drive prompt fundamentals downwards. 

Crude: Oil prices traded relatively flat yesterday. Demand concerns began to grow as China provided weaker economic data than expected, but with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, supply concerns remain. 

Carbon (EU ETS): The ICE Dec-23 rose to €79.05 yesterday. The contract is currently trading at €79.16/t at the time of writing. 

Carbon (UKAs): The ICE Dec-23 closed at £39.1/t yesterday. The contract is currently trading at £38.71/t at the time of writing.

The Procurement Group

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