1st May 2024 Energy Price Alert – UK Gas & UK Electricity

Wholesale Gas and Electricity prices have been broadly stable over the last 2 days, with the Winter ’24 and Winter ’25 periods remaining unchanged.

We are experiencing some turbulence in the market at the moment, however in general prices are 10-15% lower than they were even at September 2023.

TPG’s position remains that prices will continue to drop once the geo-political uncertainty abates.

Gas: Gas prices rose yesterday. A revised forecast of wind generation increased demand for gas in the prompt. The North Sea pipeline is importing 17.9mcm/day to the UK, its lowest level since August last year, causing supplies to be low. 
Power: Power prices rose yesterday, tracking bullish momentum in the gas market. In Week 18 wind generation has been revised downwards alongside seasonal norms, averaging 8.4GWs/day. 
Oil: Oil prices fell yesterday as the June contract expired. The US Federal Reserve is currently halfway through its meeting to decide on the 2024 interest rates. A potential rate rise would soften the US economy and increase $USD against other currencies. Oil prices continue to be supported by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Current tensions are based on Israel awaiting a response from Hamas on a possible ceasefire. 
Carbon (EU ETS): The ICE Dec-24 rose to €68.52/t yesterday. This morning the contract has opened €69.05/t, currently trading at €67.77/t.
Carbon (UKAs): The ICE Dec-24 rose yesterday to £35.78/t. The contract opened similarly today at £35.79/t; at the time of writing, it is trading at £35.3/t. 

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