On Thursday, as we anticipated, wholesale gas and electricity prices started to drop back. There are no fundamentals in the market to support price rises at present.
In terms of UK power generation, the price last week was stable despite renewables only contributing 32%. This is further evidence of the drop in gas prices as they are the major contributor.
We don’t expect the generation price to rise sharply and do expect it to drop below £60/pmh in the coming months.
Have a good weekend.
| Gas: Gas prices fell yesterday following the forecasts of warmer temperatures and high gas storage. Storage levels reached 1.5bcm at the end of February, 190mcm above the same period last year. Power: Power prices continued to track the wider energy complex, namely gas and carbon, as these commodities softened yesterday. Nuclear generation throughout February produced 1.9GWs less than the previous four year average. Oil: Oil prices fell yesterday as the front month contract expired in place for April. Thin liquidity for April so far, but prices were supported by US inflation matching market expectations. Carbon (EU ETS): The ICE Dec-24 returned to losses after closing at a weekly high in the previous session yesterday. Closing at €56.00/t yesterday, the contract is currently trading at €55.99. Carbon (UKAs): The ICE Dec-24 reversed its gains from the previous session yesterday, closing downwards at £35.41/t. The contract opened upwards at £35.99/t but has returned to softening, trading at £35.5/t at the time of writing. |
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