On Thursday, wholesale gas and electricity prices were broadly stable, with only very small increases in some time periods. At this time of year, in addition to the current geopolitical tensions, we are also facing maintenance on the Norwegian pipeline, which is a major source of UK gas. This often leads to volatility, especially when pipelines don’t reopen as scheduled.

One-year wholesale prices are currently around 5% higher than at the beginning of both June and July, but still lower than they were during the winter – including the start of April.

On the generation front, production prices have remained around £80 per MWh, with fossil fuels continuing to be the dominant component at over 28%. At the retail level, prices have risen over the past two months, but as the global geopolitical situation stabilises and Norwegian maintenance work concludes, we expect prices to drop back towards the end of August.

Gas: Gas prices strengthened yesterday. In the prompt, the Norwegian pipeline maintenance period is about to begin, which coincides with the closure of British gas assets. Curve prices strengthened as the UK gets closer to winter with an under-supplied storage.

Power: Power prices rose yesterday, supported by gains in the gas market. However, spot prices softened due to the expectation of 7.8GWs/day wind output next week, which is well above average.

Oil: Oil prices fell yesterday as President Trump’s 1 August tariff deadline loomed over the markets, with uncertainty around countries yet to negotiate a deal with the US. The market is awaiting clarity.

Carbon (EU ETS): The ICE Dec-25 fell to €72.66/t yesterday. Opening at €72.34/t this morning, the contract has softened down to €72.05/t at the time of writing.

Carbon (UKAs): The ICE Dec-25 continued to soften and fell to £50.99/t yesterday. The contract has opened at £51.35/t and is trading at £51.13/t at the time of writing.

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