17th October 2023 Energy Price Alert – UK Gas & UK Electricity

Large drops seen on Monday; finally the market fundamentals are kicking in.

Other than being unsettling the situation in Israel & Gaza does not have any bearing on the UK energy market.  Of course, if the conflict spreads it potentially does as Qatar, where we get a lot of our LNG from, is a major funder of Hamas and where the Hamas leadership lives so they could react if Britain supports Israel and the conflict escalates.
Gas: NBP contracts shed most of last week’s gains throughout yesterday’s session with prompt contracts seeing significant losses, largely driven by market fundamentals. This morning, near curve contracts, have seen further losses.
Power: Power prices fell yesterday, tracking losses seen in NBP contracts. Wind output for the rest of the week is forecast at 20% above seasonal norms. Carbon contracts fell on the far curve, helping soften corresponding power contracts. 

Crude: Prices fell yesterday as supply concerns were alleviated upon news that the US will ease sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports. Concerns still remain over what conflict in the Middle East could mean for prices.

Carbon (EU ETS): The ICE Dec-23 dropped to €83.35/t yesterday. The contract has shed more value this morning and is currently trading at €82.73/t. 
Carbon (UKAs): The ICE Dec-23 closed at £51.08/t yesterday, opening lower at £50.08/t today. At time of writing the contract has seen further losses and is trading at £49.70/t
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