17th August 2023 Energy Price Alert – UK Gas & UK Electricity

The market eased back on Wednesday after Tuesday’s increases.  The volatility is being driven by speculators who are playing on the 10% of global LNG supply being taken out by the Australian strike.  To get the current W23 electrciity price in to perspective it is back at levels seen on 7/7/23 and 26/5/23.  Prior to 26/5/23 it was higher.  The wholesale gas price has not been at these levels since 15/5/23.  That said at retail we are presently seeing electricity having risen by just under 2% on the week, around 0.4p/kwh, and gas rising by around 3% or 0.2p/kwh.  The traders are creating volatility but with European LNG stocks currently at 90% it may not be so easy for them to offload cargoes at inflated prices, Australian strike or not.

Gas: NBP contracts reversed some of Tuesday’s gains in yesterday’s session. A balanced market helped to calm concerns coming from Australia over possible LNG strikes. Storage levels are rapidly reaching capacity helping to ease prices throughout the curve.

Power: Power prices fell throughout yesterday’s session as contracts mirrored their NBP counterparts. Below seasonal wind output coupled with a rise in temperatures look to add support to near term prices. Further out on the curve, Carbon markets are providing support to pricing.

Crude: Oil prices were volatile yesterday as increased demand weighed upon supply levels. A stronger US dollar helped keep prices down as oil costs increased for non-USD currency users.

Carbon (EU ETS): The ICE Dec-23 closed at €88.46/t yesterday. Opening today at €87.47, the contract is trading at €88.65/t at the time of writing. 

Carbon (UKAs): The ICE Dec-23 closed at £40.95/t yesterday. The contract has opened at £41.10/t today, where it currently remains. 

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