16th May 2025 Energy Price Alert – UK Gas & UK Electricity
Wholesale Gas and Electricity prices rose marginally on Thursday as the Norweigan Gas field maintenance continues. This is absolutely normal for this time of year; the market always reacts in the same way, and ultimately drops back down afterwards.
UK wholesale Electricity prices are down 26.3% since the beginning of 2025, with wholesale Gas prices down 32% since January 1st.
The Gas market is a little more volatile because of concerns about the EU prohibiting spot purchase of Russian Gas and LNG, but as long as Chinese demand remains subdued theres no real competition from Asia for either Middle Eastern or American LNG. This is because current Asian requirements are fully fulfilled by Australia.
The Wholesale Generation price rose in the past week to £82.20/MWh even though renewables were 39%. Fossil Fuels were just 22% over the last week, and with the good weather Solar was nudging 15%.
Gas: Gas prices strengthened with market uncertainty yesterday after Putin did not turn up to negotiations in Instanbul. Unplanned maintenance at Asta Hansteen and Troll gas fields further influenced prompt prices. Curve prices rose on the assumption of a lower storage target across Europe meaning more risk.
Power: Power prices rose yesterday, tracking the gas and carbon markets despite steady imports of LNG with the UK expecting two cargoes over the next week. The sell off of UKA’s continued ahead of the UK-EU summit next week. The Great British Energy Bill passed through Parliament on Thursday, bringing publicly owned clean power projects closer to reality.
Oil: Oil prices fell yesterday as the news of the US and Iran moving closer to a nuclear deal weighed on the market sentiment, potentially increasing supplies if a deal is agreed. Iran could produce up to another 1million/barrels/day.
Carbon (EU ETS): The ICE Dec-25 rose to €73.41/t yesterday, back to the price at the start of the week. The contract has opened at €73.25/t this morning and is currently trading at €73.37/t.
Carbon (UKAs): The ICE Dec-25 continued its recent bearish run yesterday, closing at £48.66/t. The contract is currently trading at £48.9/t.
