15th May 2025 Energy Price Alert – UK Gas & UK Electricity
After the increases at the end of last week and beginning of this week, it’s good to see wholesale Gas and Electricity prices have dropped for the last 2 days.
TPG’s view is that we can expect the trend seen over the last 6 months of prices dropping, to continue.
Gas: After gains in the previous session, partly on the back of the US – China trade deal, yesterday’s trading was bearish with contracts falling throughout the curve. In the prompt, further pressure was added from falling demand (19.3mcm below seasonal average) healthy Norwegian gas flows and upward revisions to next week’s wind outputs. On the curve, a bearish wider energy complex weighed on contracts.
Power: Power prices fell throughout the curve yesterday, with contracts tracking NBP movements. Bearish weather fundamentals weighed on price along with the potential outcomes of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine taking place in Turkey today. Some further out contracts were pressured by falling UKA carbon prices.
Oil: Crude prices dropped yesterday. News released from the EIA and API showed an increase in crude stock levels, this combined with increased inventory from OPEC+ fuelled fears over supply.
Carbon (EU ETS): The ICE Dec-25 fell further to €72.33/t yesterday. The contract opened at €71.94/t is currently trading at €72.07/t.
Carbon (UKAs): The ICE Dec-25 fell yesterday, closing at £49.44/t. The contract is currently below yesterdays close, trading at £46.68/t.
