14th January 2025 Energy Price Alert – UK Gas & UK Electricity
Wholesale Gas and Electricity prices shot up on Monday due to short term issues, including the very cold weather and an alarmist press release by British Gas owner, Centric.
As is usual at this time of year we expect market turbulence, but have not revised TPG’s forecast that overall prices will drop in 2025.
Gas: NBP prices jumped up during yesterday’s session. Wind output and temperature forecasts experienced downwards revisions increasing both heating and gas for power demand. A planned outage at the Dragon LNG terminal and claims of an attempted drone attack by Ukraine on the Turkstream pipeline caused further volatility.
Power: Power prices tracked gains at the NBP hub yesterday. Downward revisions to wind output brought generation below average, adding pressure to DA contracts. This morning, trading has started slowly, the front month and season ahead contracts are trading below last night’s close.
Oil: Prices gained yesterday as the outgoing Biden administration implemented further US sanctions against Russian oil supply, raising fears for global supply.
Carbon (EU ETS): The ICE Dec-25 continued recent gains, yesterday and rose to €76.92/t. The contract is currently trading lower at €76.55/t this morning.
Carbon (UKAs): The ICE Dec-25 rose to £35.10/t yesterday. The contract is trading down at £34.70/t at the time of writing.