Wholesale gas and electricity prices rose marginally on Friday but as previously advised we see this as a short term, trader driven, scenario as opposed to a long term fundamental shift.
Market dynamics remain heavily weighted in favour of future price drops.
| Gas: Gas prices rose at the end of last week, despite bearish fundamentals, likely due to the drop in wind generation for future weeks. The UK is currently expecting two LNG cargoes by March 16th, a quarter of what was delivered in the same period last year. Power: Power prices fell last Friday following the losses in the carbon markets. Prompt wind generation is expected to generate an average of 16.1GWs/day for week 10. Weeks 11-12 are forecast to generate an average of 10.6GWs/day. Oil: Oil prices fell at the conclusion of last week due to US interest rates remaining unchanged, and China’s revision of its GDP growth down to 5%, from 5.2%. Carbon (EU ETS): The ICE Dec-24 closed downwards at €58.39/t yesterday. The contract is trading weaker at €56.81/t at the time of writing. Carbon (UKAs): The ICE Dec-24 fell to £35.27/t last Friday. The contract has continued to soften this morning, currently trading at £34.8/t. |
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