Wholesale gas and electricity prices continued their upward trajectory on Thursday, with modest gains. So far, we haven’t seen this impact retail prices, but doubtless, it will.
Retail gas contracts, for the right type of business, are currently around 4p per kWh for gas and under 20p per kWh for electricity, with night rates in the 16p per kWh range.
On the generation front, the price last week dropped to £65.90 per MWh as renewables generated 45% of total UK production. Fossil fuels contributed 21%, with the balance made up of a combination of French imports, hydroelectric, nuclear, and biomass.
This week saw Ofgem decide against regional pricing – which is to be expected from a government department, but it makes zero sense commercially. At present, we pay wind farms in Scotland for energy that cannot be used, while prices are pegged to the most expensive form of production available on any given day.
It is bonkers – why would you not want to change this?
Gas: Gas prices rose yesterday. In the prompt, an increase in domestic demand due to an increase in cooling demand and a lack of renewable generation supported prices. In the curve, gas storage is currently 820mcm lower year on year, increasing the risk for additional imports for Winter 2025. Power: Power prices continued to rise yesterday, with support from a bullish gas market. In the prompt, wind generation forecasts have been revised upwards to 5.9GWs/day over the weekend, still below average. Oil: The September Brent crude future fell to $68.64/barrel yesterday. Oil prices fell as the market weighed the impact of President Trump’s latest tariff threats. Trump threatened Brazil with a 50% export tariff. Tariffs for copper, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals were also announced. Carbon (EU ETS): The ICE Dec-25 settled upwards at €70.74/t yesterday. Opening at €70.72/t this morning, the contract is currently trading at €70.15/t. Carbon (UKAs): The ICE Dec-25 rose to £47.23/t yesterday. The contract opened at £47.85/t and is currently trading down at £47.65/t. |




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