Pound vs Euro: What does the future hold?

The euro has seen better days. Quantitative easing, turmoil in Greece and a slow recovery from recession are just a few factors that have brought uncertainty to the continent. What does the future hold for sterling? It is hard to say due to a high degree of volatility in the market.

Fund manager, Neil Woodford expects that the pound will suffer due to uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election and beyond. “The dollar is strong because there’s increasing uncertainty about the world economic order and increasing political uncertainty. 

“Investors always seek the dollar at times of uncertainty. But also the US economy is outperfoming other developed economies around the world.

“Europe is weak principally because of QE [quantitative easing] and the weakness of the European economy. Sterling is in the middle. A view on sterling in the near-term is going to be influenced by the outcome of the general election. I have to say that based on where the polls are now the political uncertainty after the election is not going to be good news for the currency. I expect it to be relatively weak.”

Jim Mellon, a successful investor with a reported net worth of £850m thinks now is a good time to buy property in Europe. He said a year ago that the euro would fall significantly, and a fortnight ago he said that he believed the euro had now reached the bottom against the pound.
Jeremy Warner, economic commentator for The Telegraph said that he expected only a marginal effect from the election in the UK. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard said that what happens on the continent will have a more significant impact on the pound than domestic issues. He predicts that both currencies will be weak, but the euro will remain weaker, with a seven to ten per cent fall against the pound over the coming six weeks. Holiday makers may wish to wait and get even more bang for their buck when it comes time to exchange currencies.
Head of investments at Skerritts, Andew Merricks has a different view. He thinks that the pound is in a lose-lose situation regardless of the outcome of the election. A win for the tories would mean an EU referendum as promised, and the question of Scottish independence will still be looming. If Labour win or lead a coalition the danger to public funds could also provoke further instability in the pound.

He said “This election does look as though it is a lose/lose for sterling, at least in the short term. Go out and get your holiday money now, unless you have decided that the place to be in 2015 for a relaxing break is Russia or Ukraine, of course.”

E.on fined £7.8m for overcharging customers

Energy regulator, Ofgem has fined E.On £7.75m for incorrectly charging some customers exit fees and overcharging on bills.

The energy giant has also been ordered to pay back £400,000 to affected customers, with refunds ranging from £8 to £12.

The hefty fine will be paid to Citizens Advice, a community charity that helps vulnerable customers, Ofgem said today in statement.

This isn’t the first time E.On has been caught out by the energy regulator. They were fined £12m as recently as May 2014 for miss-selling energy contracts, following an investigation by Ofgem spanning two years. It is estimated half a million households were affected.

Under rules laid out by Ofgem, energy suppliers have to give customers a full 30 days notice of price rises to allow customers to switch supplier if they choose to, before the new charges come into effect.

If a customer signals their intention to switch supplier within 30 days they should not be subject to any exit fees or higher tariff. Eon was found to have billed customers for price rises in January 2013 and January 2014.

“This error and the delay in providing the information is serious and E.On has failed to protect these consumers,” Ofgem said, adding that this had been taken this into account in determining the level of penalty.

“The level of penalty package today also reflects that E.On has made the same error previously as well as making senior level commitments that it rectified its processes,” the regulator added. “Also taken into account was that E.On notified Ofgem of the billing issues and has cooperated throughout the investigation.”

E.On has issued an open apology to customers. “This is not the first time that E.ON has made this error and the company sincerely apologises to those affected.” it said.

Eon is now in the process of trackign down customers to provide refunds by the end of April this year. Sarah Harrison, senior partner in charge of enforcement at Ofgem, said: “It is vital that suppliers play by the rules so customers are encouraged to engage in the market.

“E.ON’s errors meant customers who took the chance to switch were wrongly charged. It is important that E.ON has repaid potentially affected customers and cooperated with the investigation. However it’s absolutely unacceptable that E.ON failed to provide these vital customer protections yet again and this persistent failure is the reason for the high penalty.”

In a statement it said: “Following reports from E.ON, Ofgem opened an investigation into the errors in June 2014 and has agreed today’s penalty package in recognition of the company’s errors. These errors meant that some customers were overcharged, although in the majority of cases this was by less than £10.”

Liquidity storm could throw UK into chaos

The Bank of England has warned that global liquidity and the threat of Greek default could throw the UK economy into chaos.

The FPC (Financial Planning Committee), which is tasked with maintaining financial stability at thhe Bank Of England said that liquidity – the degree to which assets can easily be traded – may have become “more fragile” in some markets around the world.

Mark Carney, governor of the Bank Of England said they would be working with the Financial Conduct Authority to assess whether asset managers could cope with a fast paced change in market conditions.

“The Committee remains concerned that investment allocations and pricing of some securities may presume that asset sales can be performed in an environment of continuous market liquidity, although liquidity in some markets may have become more fragile,” the FPC said this week.

“Trading volumes in fixed income markets have fallen relative to market size and recent events in financial markets, including in US Treasury markets in October 2014, appear to suggest that sudden changes in market conditions can occur in response to modest news. This could lead to heightened volatility and undermine financial stability.”

Although the FPC has highlighted the risk that liquidity poses to the UK, members said the Bank Of England would work with market participants to ensure that they were aware of the risks and price liquidity appropriately in an attempt to mitigate negative effects.

Just last month Mr. Carney warned that diverging monetary policies across North America, the UK, Europe and and Asia may cause further turbulence and “test capital flows across the global economy, including emerging markets.”

The FPC was also quite clear that the situation in Greece posed a real threat to the UK, “There also remain significant risks in relation to Greece and its financing needs, including in the near term.”

“Any of these risks could trigger abrupt shifts in global risk appetite that in turn might lead to a sudden reappraisal of underlying vulnerabilities in highly indebted economies, or sharp adjustments in financial markets.”

Writing to George Osbourne, Mr. Carney said that the risk to financial stability remained “elevated” and added that he would review UK bank capital rules that might result in lenders having to raise their buffers.
The Bank Of England will ask asset managers about their strategies for managing liquidity of their funds. “This would inform assessment of the extent to which markets are reliant on investment funds offering redemptions at short notice,” the FPC said.

How do companies deal with the problems posed by in-direct procurement spending?

Is maverick spending by non-procurement employees the biggest challenge relating to indirect procurement? 
Recently Supply Management conducted a market intelligence survey in which 71% of respondents said that a lack of oversight of what employees, with purchasing power but outside the procurement function, spend in categories ranging from work wear to HR services were among the top issues they faced. 

However opinions on how to deal with the issue are split. 34% percent suggest non-procurement professionals must be trained more effectively in procurement processes and a further 16% said supplier numbers should be consolidated. A further 31% percent from the private and public sectors said control of indirect spend should be handed to the procurement function, as this is one way to keep the spending in line to control the problem. This is despite the results showing that indirect costs appear to be a responsibility shared over a number of different departments within organisations: procurement (63 per cent), senior department heads (42 per cent), finance (39 per cent) and operational staff (25 per cent).
“We are a government procurement department so can only advise other departments on spend – rather than take ownership – which is frustrating,” one respondent said. “We can provide the best advice but the stakeholders can decide to overrule our advice and do what they want.”
Many of the other challenges in relation to indirect procurement are linked to maverick spend and stakeholder management. Nearly half (46 per cent) cite misclassified items and poor reporting as a challenge, 45 per cent say little understanding exists of where indirect spend lies and how much it covers. And 49 per cent say lack of ownership by stakeholders is a problem.
Again, respondents were split on the best way to increase the influence and profile of procurement in the organisation. Nearly half (47 per cent) of the 360 people surveyed said a higher status in the boardroom would help, 42 per cent said procurement needs better oversight and reporting metrics of departments’ spend and 36 per cent said more training should be available to stakeholders.
But respondents also admitted that their skills for managing indirect spend fall short in some areas. When it comes to improving their understanding of indirect spend, 54 per cent said they need to analyse supply chain and commercial commitments and 46 per cent said they need the ability to benchmark prices.
“It’s a complicated picture and one not easily overcome with basic strategy or sweeping statements,” said Chris Aston, director, Expense Reduction Analysts.
“The focus is constantly shifting between direct and indirect spend and not always in the same direction. There are huge gains to be made by allowing procurement strategies to be given higher status by businesses, and better analysis of indirect spend can have significant benefits.”
David Noble, group CEO, CIPS, added: “Boardrooms are starting to wake up to the need for professionally qualified supply chain managers because of the added value that best practice, ethical sourcing can add to their bottom line and the role they play in safeguarding their business’ reputation.”

Greece too slow to address mounting debt, says president of EU commission

Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission has criticised the sluggish pace of progress in talks over Greece’s mounting debt.

In meeting with Greece’s Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, Mr. Juncker said he was not satisfied. The Greek PM is in dire need of EU support for reforms in order to unlock vital funds for his country and avoid the possibility of bankruptcy and being ejected from the Eurozone.

Mr. Tsipras has pledged to end austerity measures in Greece, such plans have been opposed by Greece’s EU creditors. Greece managed to negotiate a four month extension on its bailout terms last month after heated talks with creditors.

Hoping to persuade EU leaders of its promise and worthiness of credit, Greece has announced a series of reforms, but it would still like the EU to agree new, more lenient terms for the repayment of its debts.

In the eventuality that no agreement is reached, Greece risks being unable to meet its agreed payments. In the next two weeks alone it will need to find €6bn to pay its creditors.

Mr Juncket also said that he was “not satisfied with the developments in recent weeks”.

“I don’t think that we have made sufficient progress, but we’ll try to push in the direction of a successful conclusion of the issues we have to deal with.”

“I am totally excluding a failure, I don’t want a failure. I would like Europeans to go together. This is not the time for division,” he said.

Speaking alongside Mr Juncker, Mr Tsipras said he remained optimistic. “If there is political will, everything is possible,” he said.

In a previous meeting with Martin Schulz, president of the European Parliament, Mr. Tsipras urged the EU to back growth in Greece. “Now is the time to give hope to the Greek people, not only ‘implement, implement, implement’ and ‘obligations, obligations, obligations,'” said Mr Tsipras.
Analysts described last months’s interim bailout agreement as a climbdown for the Greek government, which gained power in the country under the promise that it would have half of the Greek debt re-written off.
Even if the bailout extension is approved, Greece still has a huge mountain to climb in meeting its debt obligations.
The Procurement Group

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