7th April 2025 Energy Price Alert – UK Gas & UK Electricity
On Friday wholesale Gas and Electricity prices dropped very significantly.
This is good news and means that the future curve is now flat for 2 and 3 year terms, with a slight uptick for 1 year.
TPG’s view is that there are further drops to come, but most likely not of this magnitude.
Gas: Gas prices continued to track the oil markets and fell at the end of last week. Prompt gas prices fell due to a decline in domestic demand but were slightly supported by a decrease in Norwegian imports. Curve prices were impacted by the implementation of the US tariffs.
Power: Power prices continued to fall on Friday. In the prompt, a weak wind forecast of 2.7GWs/day for today saw prices rise in the Day ahead contract. Wind generation is expected to be 5.8GWs/day throughout this week, well below the norm. The curve continues to be driven by the declines in the wider energy mix, namely gas and carbon.
Oil: Oil prices continued to fall on Friday, with weekly losses nearing $11/barrel. US trade tariffs on its global partners, combined with OPEC+ increasing production, are threatening to push Brent prices below $60/barrel, which has not been seen since 2021.
Carbon (EU ETS): The ICE Dec-25 continued to soften on Friday, down to €63.82/t. The contract is currently trading at €61.23/t at the time of writing.
Carbon (UKAs): The ICE Dec-25 fell at the end of last week to £43.28/t. The contract has continued to trade bearish this morning, currently trading at £40.67/t.
