22nd October 2024 Energy Price Alert – UK Gas & UK Electricity
Prices remained subdued on Monday with some small upward movements on shorter terms, but continued drops further out.
The 1 year April 25 price remains well below £80/MWh but there is now a clear curve between 1 year and then 2 year+ pricing. This indicates to us that suppliers believe the market will drop as TPG have been forecasting.
The benefit of locking nin for the long term is that you capture those savings straight away. By going short now for, say 12 months or less, and then renewing you will get the full benefit of the lower prices. It’s a certainty by signing long now vs uncertainty by going short term conundrum
Gas: Most NBP contracts rebounded yesterday from the previous session’s losses. At lunchtime yesterday, it was expected the grid would finish the day 19.8mcm/day undersupplied. This morning most contracts are trading up on last nights close.
Power: Power contracts mostly tracked NBP movements throughout yesterday’s trading. Despite downward revision, wind output is still forecast around 20% above seasonal norm, limiting more costly gas for power demand. Power trading has started relatively quiet this morning.
Oil: Benchmark prices gained yesterday, with further economic stimulus in China fuelling hopes of improved demand.
Carbon (EU ETS): The ICE Dec-24 closed at €61.76/t last night. The contract last traded at €61.63/t this morning.
Carbon (UKAs): The ICE Dec-24 closed at £39.87/t yesterday. The contract last traded at £39.75/t at time of writing.
